Article Today, New Delhi:
The latest Lok Poll survey has pointed to a significant swing in Bihar’s political landscape. The Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Grand Alliance, which includes the Congress, is projected to win between 118 and 126 seats in the 243-member Assembly. In contrast, the ruling NDA is expected to secure only 105 to 114 seats. The survey signals potential change in leadership, with Tejashwi Yadav emerging as the key contender for the Chief Minister’s post.
Narrow Vote Share Gap
The survey places the Grand Alliance’s vote share between 39 and 42 per cent, while the NDA is projected to gain 38 to 41 per cent. Though the difference is marginal, analysts note that the distribution of seats could decisively favour the Grand Alliance. The survey attributes this shift partly to Rahul Gandhi’s “vote theft yatra” and allegations of corruption against NDA leaders, which appear to have influenced voter sentiment.
Limited Impact of Welfare Announcements
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s recent welfare schemes, including pensions for the elderly and financial support for unemployed youth, have not significantly altered the voter mood, according to the survey. These measures, expected to cost the exchequer over Rs. 40,000 crore annually, were perceived as election-driven and failed to gain widespread traction.
Youth Support for Tejashwi
The survey highlights growing support for Tejashwi Yadav among younger voters and first-time electors. His promise of employment opportunities has resonated strongly with this demographic. Analysts suggest that Bihar’s long-standing caste-driven political alignments are showing signs of change, with youth and women leaning towards the Grand Alliance.
Leadership Question for NDA
If the projections hold, the NDA faces a major setback. The outcome would not only challenge Mr. Nitish Kumar’s leadership but also present the BJP, a key partner in the alliance, with difficult choices. Political observers note that the survey has already intensified debate within the NDA on whether to reinforce Mr. Kumar’s leadership or seek new strategies.
Tejashwi’s Prospects
With the Grand Alliance tipped for a majority, the survey projects Tejashwi Yadav as the likely Chief Minister. His rise represents a generational shift in Bihar politics, while Mr. Kumar’s declining popularity reflects voter fatigue with his leadership. The coming weeks are expected to see recalibration of strategies by both alliances as Bihar prepares for a high-stakes electoral contest.
